From the 2010 Survey on Political and Social Awareness
January 2011
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) suffered a defeat at the 2010 House of Councilors Election, and the political situation became completely different from a year ago when the House of Representatives Election was held. Two month after the election, the authors conducted a survey of voters on their political and social awareness and interest including voting behavior at the House of Councilors, evaluation of the regime change, support for parties, and political view.
Comparing voters’ behavior at the House of Councilors Election and that at the House of Representatives Election, the number of DPJ supporters who though voted for different parties have increased. Among nonparty-affiliated voters, too, less percentage of people voted for DPJ. Many respondents take a harsh view on the feasibility of DPJ manifesto. When asked their views on manifestos in general, the majority flexibly think that “parties do not necessarily have to stick to the manifestos if they are not supported by the public,” but those who believe “manifestos should be honored” are on a rise.
Many respondents welcome the regime change itself, but when asked whether Japan has a better political situation, more than half answered, “There is no change.” In the previous survey conducted a year ago, 33% said “political situation has improved (including ‘moderately improved’,” but only 22% think so in this latest survey, indicating the public rate the first year of the regime change quite harshly.
Dissatisfaction with the political situation seems to be prevailing. Those who feel “dissatisfied” have increased, up from last year’s 83% to 91%, with “dissatisfied” and “rather dissatisfied” combined. Many hope to see a political change.
Respondents were also asked about their political stance, or whether they are “conservative” or “reformist.” 60% regard themselves as “conservative (including ‘rather’)” and 38% “reformist (including ‘rather’). Looking at the response tendency by party affiliation, percentages of those regarding themselves as “reformist” decline in order of Your Party, DPJ, New Komeito, and LDP. Nonparty affiliates fall between DPJ supporters and New Komeito supporters in terms of “conservative” and “reformist” percentages.
Using the response tendency, the authors analyzed the factors determining party affiliation. Whether supporting LDP or DPJ is, by definition, related to respondents’ evaluation on the regime change as well as to their responses on political stance. In addition, responses on how they are involved in society influence their party affiliations. It is also worth noting that whether they have parties to support or not is largely affected by ages and trust in political parties.