From the NHK Public Survey on the 20th House of Councilors Election
September 2004
On July 11, 2004, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) made striking progress in the 20th House of Councilors Election. NHK carried out various types of opinion polls, whose results suggest the problem of pension scheme gave the DPJ a big edge.
In a poll conducted one week prior to the election, we asked people to what issue they would give a top priority when casting a ballot. Nearly half of the respondents named “the pension problem.” Also, of those who “will pay due consideration to the pension problem when casting a vote,” 18 % answered they would vote for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) at the proportional representation, whilst 28 % answered they would vote for the DPJ. The result indicates that the pension problem served as a tailwind for the DPJ.
Regarding a question on ideal party system, from three alternatives, “one-party system with comfortable majority,” “two-party system,” and “multiparty system,” more than half of the respondents supported “two-party system.” In separate survey for each support group for the LDP, New Komeito party, and the Social Democratic Party, “two-party system” was the most favored political form. It seems growing public sentiment, regardless of party affiliations, for a two-party system benefited the DPJ.
Series of polls that were conducted four times, 3 days to 3 weeks before the election, elucidates how the DPJ gained momentum toward the voting date. Three weeks before the election, there was no difference in forecasted rates of people who plan to vote for the LDP and for the DPJ. But looking at the rate shifts after that, although people planning to vote for the LDP increased in some degree, the rate of increase for the DPJ exceeded that for the LDP.
Our post election poll on the number of seats gained by the LDP and the DPJ in this election reports that, as for the LDP, 19% of the respondents expected more seats, 34 % expected less seats, and 43 % think the number is appropriate. As for the DPJ, 32 % of the respondents expected more seats, 15 % expected less seats and 47 % thinks the number is appropriate. The data reveal people cast a harsh eye on the LDP.